Papers¶
This section provides direct access to the formal research and technical foundations of the Electric Barometer framework.
All papers are authored and maintained in the eb-papers repository. This page serves as a navigation and download index for the latest authoritative PDF builds.
Electric Barometer Ecosystem¶
Foundational research defining readiness-based forecast evaluation, asymmetric loss, admissibility, and governance for operational decision systems. These papers establish the core theoretical and technical primitives that underpin the Electric Barometer ecosystem.
| Topic | Description | |
|---|---|---|
| Forecast Readiness Framework (FRF) | Establishes a unified framework for evaluating forecast performance through readiness, asymmetric loss, admissibility, and governance rather than accuracy alone. | Tech · Exec |
| Cost-Weighted Service Loss (CWSL) | Defines an asymmetric, cost-weighted loss function for evaluating forecast error relative to operational underbuild and overbuild risk. | Tech · Exec |
| CWSL Ratio Calibration (CWSLR) | Formalizes sensitivity analysis and calibration of the cost ratios governing asymmetric loss in CWSL. | Tech · Exec |
| Hit Rate at Tolerance (HR@τ) | Measures the proportion of forecasts that fall within an acceptable tolerance band, capturing operational reliability rather than magnitude of error. | Tech · Exec |
| Tolerance Sensitivity for HR@τ (HRτ) | Analyzes how tolerance selection affects acceptability rates and readiness interpretation. | Tech · Exec |
| No-Shortfall Level (NSL) | Defines a binary coverage metric indicating whether forecasts avoid operational shortfall events within a decision horizon. | Tech · Exec |
| Underbuild Depth (UD) | Quantifies the severity of forecast shortfalls conditional on a shortfall occurring. | Tech · Exec |
| Forecast Readiness Score (FRS) | Aggregates multiple readiness and reliability metrics into a single interpretable readiness signal. | Tech · Exec |
| Forecast Admissibility Surface (FAS) | Determines whether individual forecast slices are structurally admissible for modeling and control based on baseline error anatomy and support characteristics. | Tech |
| Forecast Primitive Compatibility (FPC) | Diagnoses structural incompatibility between forecast primitives and operational demand processes. | Tech · Exec |
| Demand Quantization Compatibility (DQC) | Formalizes admissibility of discrete demand, zero-demand states, and operating-hour semantics for evaluation and control. | Tech · Exec |
| Forecast Governance | Defines deterministic governance gates that enforce structural validity, readiness thresholds, and policy constraints prior to action. | Tech · Exec |
| Readiness Adjustment Layer (RAL) | Specifies a controlled post-evaluation adjustment mechanism that modifies forecasts to satisfy readiness and governance constraints under asymmetric cost. | Tech · Exec |
Operational Control Frameworks¶
Applied control frameworks that operationalize Electric Barometer primitives for specific decision environments under demand uncertainty. These frameworks consume the core ecosystem constructs to produce concrete, policy-driven decision systems.
| Topic | Description | |
|---|---|---|
| Limited Time Offer Readiness (LTOR) | Defines a readiness-centric control framework for managing limited-time offers under demand uncertainty, linking forecasts, loss signals, and operational resolution. | Tech · Exec |
Notes on versions and governance¶
- Download links point to the latest authoritative build produced by the release workflow (
*_latest.pdf) - Versioned PDFs are also produced per tag and remain archived as release assets
- Updates are deliberate, reviewable, and traceable
This ensures the Electric Barometer framework remains credible, auditable, and durable as it evolves.